Will Bitcoin hit $1M by the end of 2020?
The newcomers to any investment type tend to buy what they see as the biggest, best, most popular asset.
You know nothing about car manufacturers but want to invest? You will probably buy Daimler, Toyota, VW or Ford. IT companies? Google, Apple, Microsoft. Banks? Citi, Deutsche Bank, BoA. Other companies in every category might represent a better investment but you don't know enough about the industry to make an educated decision. Same story with cryptocurrencies.
Don't underestimate the power of dumb money. Bitcoin is the least efficient or usable of all blockchains but the first, most expensive and popular one. To many people blockchain and bitcoin are the same thing.
I seriously doubt it will hit $1M by 2020 or ever but I do believe that it still has massive growth potential.
Who knows? But the way this crypto coin is running it is possible. However, I think also it depends on how regulators or governments take it. Today, we know that regulators can not enter into this territory (technically) but they always have the power to control the things. To protect investors etc, they can jump strongly and manipulate the whole cryptosystem with the law. In such scenarios, nothing can be predicted.
11 arrested in Icelandic bitcoin heist March 5, 2018
Police in Iceland say they have cracked the case of the largest series of thefts ever in the country — and it's over bitcoin. Nearly 600 computers used to mine cryptocurrencies have been stolen from data centers in Iceland in four burglaries, the AP reported. A security guard and 10 others were arrested, although the stolen computers worth almost $2 million have not been found. Police are monitoring electric consumption with the hopes of finding unusually high energy usage, a clue that could lead to an illegal bitcoin mine.
I believe that it will - and maybe even sooner than that. Once you realize that once the maximum amount of Bitcoin has been mined (21 million coins), the laws of supply and demand (global population of 8+ billion), I can see it going even higher.
The only barrier to general usage as a currency is that is is difficult to use contextually. I grok a coffee at $4, but how can my poor human brain get around a coffee costing 0.00025 bitcoin today and 0.000004 bitcoin once it hits $1M
If we want this in general circulation, we need to start using fractional bitcoin amounts, but do most people understand the value of a tonal or a satoshi?
first of all i am not a big supporter of bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency at this time , lots of fraud and scams and security breaches . some word gov. already stop there citizens to play on this platforms .i might agree on it . we need to support our national currency us dollar and support our national stock exchanges nyse and nasdaq with investments in our national companies and national infrastructure with upgrades long overdue .this is what i think
I agree with most here. Bitcoin will not reach those heights. Blockchain and distributed ledgers are the important part of this technology. They are viable.
The cryptocurrency part is something that many governments don't like. The mining is essentially done in one country - not good from the financial viewpoint for a system that is supposed to be "distributed." And as we have seen, squabbles can produce forks.
I always thought that the initial implementation was nice as a trial. But bitcoin blocks are still too small and transactions too slow for real industrial strength use. Quite frankly, the other crypto blocks aren't big enough either for many industries. Still, I think that we are seeing that most industries are interested in the blockchain. If cryptos move from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake or proof-of-X? then real blockchain apps can be developed for something other than registering "coin." We can also save the world from the huge power drain to mine those last coins.
Here is why?
Too few people use digital currencies for them to really threaten the world’s financial stability.
That’s the conclusion of a new report from the Financial Stability Board (FSB), an international body that keeps tabs on the global financial system and makes recommendations to the G20. Still, the market is developing so quickly that “vigilant monitoring” is needed, the FSB warns.
The primary risks posed by crypto-assets are low liquidity, the use of leverage, volatility, and technological risks like vulnerability to cyberattacks. If the financial system regulators don’t properly account for these risks and they then materialize, it could undermine confidence in financial institutions.
But the most important words in the conclusion may be the caveat that the report is “based on the available information.”
Assessing risks is difficult because there is so little available data, particularly on the extent to which investors are borrowing money to buy cryptocurrency, and how exposed financial institutions are. Crypto-specific regulations could force more transparency.
Until then, the FSB is developing a new “monitoring framework,” which it says is based mostly on the sliver of public data that does happen to be available.
So, I doubt it.
21 months ago
I think the worst aspect of the entire bitcoin/crypto-currency bubble (and it is indeed a bubble headed for bursting) is that the frenzy of greed over it overshadows the real and potential value of the blockchain technology that underlies it. If you forget the hype that seems endlessly to swirl, many are developing new applications that show real promise, It should be said with equal candor and haste that blockchain will not be the long-sought after silver bullet many of the hypers shout that it is. That notwithstanding, a great many positive uses of it will likely result and those would probably be worth investing in.
My short answer is no. Bitcoin right now has a very similar pattern as the .com buble that happened between 1997 and 2001. It is a very volatile share (in several hours the price can vary $1000) which is just showing that the current value is the result of the speculation of people that does not really know what is going to be used for. The fact that there are new strong criptocurrencies, like Ethereum, that solve several problems of Bitcoin, shows that Bitcoin will drop dramatically when one of those criptoccurencies win the spot. The real value of all this is the blockchain technology itself.
It depends on how inflation fares in the next 2-3 years and if BTC remains the main value store / medium of exchange vs other tokens/coins. It's hard to draw fundamental reasons for BTC to increase 70x in the next 2 years and reach a market cap of $21 trillion, but then again its rise to 5 digits dollar values was hard to predict, too. That kind of rise means that the whole crypto market will have to rise to ~$40 trillion to maintain the dominance proportion of BTC. The problem is that the global market cap is "just" $100 trillion - ( http://www.businessinsider.com/global-market-cap-is-about-to-hit-100-trillion-2017-12 ), so the extra trillions needed for the rise might just come from the traditional stock market.
A recap about the 2017 for Bitcoin https://www.google.it/amp/s/www.coindesk.com/900-20000-bitcoins-historic-2017-price-run-revisited/amp/
it continues to go up and down, again the Chinese Government plans to limit power use by some bitcoin miners as are concerned that bitcoin miners have taken advantage of low power prices in some areas (source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-03/china-is-said-to-curb-electricity-supply-for-some-bitcoin-miners)
An article just released by Forbes about this, https://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/2018/01/05/how-likely-is-it-that-bitcoin-will-hit-500k-in-three-years/#133c85355b4b
The discussion is if Bitcoin could jump to 500K in 3 years, "How Likely Is It That Bitcoin Will Hit $500k In Three Years?"
Emerging technologies follow an adoption trend over time that starts extremely slow, proponents and enthusiasts grow a community of early adopters, mainstream pressures institutional investors, and eventually a plateau will occur. We have yet to see this plateau with the internet...
Think about computers. The most complex of computers were not in the hands of everyday people for several decades. The first use cases required significant investments and knowledge.
Now - enter Bitcoin and the world of blockchain. What is the emerging technology? Blockchain - NOT Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is a use case of blockchain, that frankly, I'm not the biggest fan of. Bitcoin will always be a decentralized project that will challenge existing financial institutions as they adopt blockchain POCs across their value chain. The most significant value in blockchain will be when institutions invest far more in progressing it's value. Once blockchain is a mainstream development tool, we will see even more projects spinning use cases.
We are living in a thrilling time. Bitcoin is not the only project out there. It is the scapegoat for the average person. There are more potential use cases in Ethereum, IOTA and Tangled Networks, as well as Ripple and partnerships with financial institutions in my mind than I see with Bitcoin.
I am not clear how a system (i) which is not well aligned with government bodies and financial institutions, (ii) lacking proper regulatory clearance, (iii) only staying with niche section of world's populations and (iv)with so much of uncertainty in people's mind will get success in the world market. On the other hand competitors (e.g.Ripple, Ethereum, Litecoin) are also coming up with much more structured approach. Therefore the market will be highly competitive and Bitcoin might have to face tough challenge in the market. Under this circumstances, it will be very difficult the market scenario for the all the crypto-currencies.
Bitcoin's future is bleak! Hacks on crypto currencies is rising! India announced today that it not legal tender! South Korea did that a while back. Crypto currency future is uncertain but the blockchain technology is here to stay! Eventually I feel bit will just become another commodity that is traded. Its below $ 10K now and it may double in the next 2 years but don't expect anything exponential.
1M is probably too much however if considering its price volatility everything could happen, https://charts.bitcoin.com/chart/price-volatility
That's like asking what will be the wind speed in Chicago on December 5th, 2020. There are too many forces impacting the trajectory to effectively parse and analyze. Basically, we are left to our intuitions - unless you believe you have identified the primary influences and can map out the trendline. Nonetheless, that would still have to include assessing its impact, directly, on the US dollar in order to change the overall context.
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