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Electric Vehicles vs. Lubricant Industry
Hello,
What are the main impacts of Electric vehicles on the lubricant demand for the upcoming years?
79 months ago
1 answer
Islam,
If it recdiuces moving parts, then the impact will be proportional to both reduced profitability (sell less, make less) and any lost efficiemcies in productionn and raw material acquisition (less bought, less made, fixed asset costs remain, so the purchase prices rise.
EVs have a long long long way to go, so I'm not even remotely concerned about any material effect for at least two decades. Over 100M cars are made a year and there are easily a billion plus on the road. They all need oil and other lubicants. Collectively we do not even have 300,000 EVs out there.
Finally, there are planty of auto components that still move and need lubricants and the drive trainis still there.
So to seal the deal - I'm not concerned about any major material changes. To test that, look at the total volume of lubrucants used in cars and light today in engines - say 1B times 5 quarts of motor oil - 5 billion quarts - divided by 4 quarts per gallon - that's 1.25 billion gallons. At about 8 pounds per gallon, that's 10 billion pounds of oil in those vehicles at any one moment. That's a lot. Until we see at least 10% of that go away - that's 10MM EV's, not much will change in motor oil. Almost every other compoent stioll needs greases and other lubricants. I'd not worry very much for now.
79 months ago
